Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections     

Chao Wang  Liguang Wu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):613-623

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.  相似文献   

Identification and analysis of high-frequency oscillations in the eyewalls of tropical cyclones     

CHEN Shumin  Youyu LU  LI Weibiao  WEN Zhiping 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):624-634

High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones(TCs). Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit(2008) shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.  相似文献   

基于遗传算法-支持向量机模型在热带气旋强度预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾锦荣  刘华强  刘向陪  吕庆平 《海洋预报》2011,28(3)

利用遗传算法对支持向量机(SVM)模型参数进行寻优,找到最优参数组合后代入SVM模型中,得到基于遗传算法的支持向量机模型(GA-SVM),利用此模型对热带气旋强度进行预报实验。该模型对热带气旋强度12 h、24 h和48 h的预报平均绝对误差分别为3.01 m/s、4.46 m/s和6.57 m/s;比最小二乘回归法的预报精度分别提高了12%、11%、14%。  相似文献   

弱冻胶调剖剂在孤岛油田污水中成胶性能评价     

宋岱锋  张岩  薄纯辉  李楠  陈辉 《海洋地质译丛》2011,(2):62-64,90

应用孤岛油田现场聚合物和美国进口复合有机铬交联剂TIORCOWC684进行了一系列的室内评价实验。实验结果表明,宝莫聚合物均具有较好的初始黏度、且形成的弱冻胶体系强度高;弱冻胶主段塞选取聚合物浓度2500--3000mg／L,交联剂浓度300--600mg／L,成胶强度较高,且胶体不易脱水;弱冻胶封口段塞聚合物浓度为4000mg／L,交联剂浓度300--900mg／L,胶体强度较大、韧性好,满足封口的要求;同时评价了封口段塞的耐盐性能,结果表明该体系随盐类矿化度的增加体系强度有增加趋势。  相似文献   

近年来我国普通劳动者工资变化及其对农地利用的影响   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

辛良杰  李秀彬  谈明洪  郝海广 《地理研究》2011,30(8):1391-1400

利用农村固定观察点数据、《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》、全国农业统计数据等,对近年来我国普通劳动者工资的变化特征及其对我国农地利用的影响进行了分析。结果表明：近年来我国普通劳动者工资的增长速度和幅度明显要快于农产品和农业生产资料价格的增长速度。我国东部发达地区的部分省份,其复种指数已经出现了明显的下降趋势,物质和服务投...  相似文献   

南极中山站极光亚暴期间的I(557.7nm)/I(427.8nm)比值变化分析          下载免费PDF全文

胡国元  艾勇  张虹 《极地研究》2011,23(4):264-268

对1999年4月8日南极中山站极光亚暴期间不同谱线的极光强度比值进行讨论,并据此讨论亚暴期间沉降粒子能量随时间变化的情况.得出I(557.7 nm)/I(427.8 nm)和I(630.0 nm)/I(427.8 nm)比值在平静时期分别在5-22和1-2.76之间变化,该变化不是由原子氧浓度空间分布变化所引起,而可能...  相似文献   

基于能源消费的中国不同产业空间的碳足迹分析   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

赵荣钦  黄贤金  钟太洋  彭佳雯 《地理学报(英文版)》2011,21(2):285-300

Using energy consumption and land use data of each region of China in 2007,this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint model based on energy consumption,and estimated the carbon emission amount of fossil energy and rural biomass energy of dif-ferent regions of China in 2007.Through matching the energy consumption items with indus-trial spaces,this paper divided industrial spaces into five types:agricultural space,living & industrial-commercial space,transportation industrial space,fishery and water conservancy space,and other industrial space.Then the author analyzed the carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of each industrial space.Finally,advices of decreasing industrial carbon footprint and optimizing industrial space pattern were put forward.The main conclusions are as following:(1) Total amount of carbon emission from energy consumption of China in 2007 was about 1.65 GtC,in which the proportion of carbon emission from fossil energy was 89%.(2) Carbon emission intensity of industrial space of China in 2007 was 1.98 t/hm2,in which,carbon emission intensity of living & industrial-commercial space and of transportation in-dustrial space was 55.16 t/hm2 and 49.65 t/hm2 respectively,they were high-carbon-emission industrial spaces among others.(3) Carbon footprint caused by industrial activities of China in 2007 was 522.34 106 hm2,which brought about ecological deficit of 28.69 106 hm2,which means that the productive lands were not sufficient to compensate for carbon footprint of industrial activities,and the compensating rate was 94.5%.As to the regional carbon footprint,several regions have ecological profit while others have not.In general,the present ecologi-cal deficit caused by industrial activities was small in 2007.(4) Per unit area carbon footprint of industrial space in China was about 0.63 hm2/hm2 in 2007,in which that of living & indus-trial-commercial space was the highest (17.5 hm2/hm2).The per unit area carbon footprint of different industrial spaces all presented a declining trend from east to west of China.  相似文献   

开发区土地集约利用强度潜力分析——以桐梓县娄山关经济开发区为例     

张杭杭  周国富 《西部资源》2011,(5):44-45

本文以桐梓县娄山关经济开发区为例,在对开发区进行实地调查的基础上,计算该开发区的工业用地容积率、建筑系数和固定资产投入、产出强度的现状值,然后通过综合考虑确定其目标值,采用目标直逼法,测算出开发区各类强度潜力值,最后对其结果进行分析,以此提出开发区未来发展的对策与建议。  相似文献   

曝气对人工湿地氮去除效果的影响   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

方焰星  何池全  梁霞  金海  詹跃武  张亚克  张绚璇 《湿地科学》2011,9(3):270-276

选择不同的植物组合,分别在6组复合垂直流人工湿地的下行池、上行池种植金边石菖蒲(Acorus gramineus)、宽叶泽苔(Caldesia renif ormis);慈姑(Sagittaria sagittif olia)、水葱(Scirpus validus);灯芯草(Juncus effuses)、梭鱼草(Po...  相似文献   

青藏高原地面有效辐射变化及其对表层土温的影响   总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1  

李韧  赵林  丁永建  沈永平  季国良  刘广岳  杜二计  肖瑶  孙琳婵  刘杨  石伟 《冰川冻土》2011,33(5):1022-1032

利用青藏高原格尔木、狮泉河、昌都日射站及中国科学院冰冻圈观测研究站的观测资料,分析了高原有效辐射的变化,在此基础上结合土壤温度资料讨论了高原北部有效辐射的变化对表层土壤热状况的影响.结果显示：1）青藏高原有效辐射变化因所处的区域不同而异,高原东北部、西部及高原腹地有效辐射总体呈减小的趋势,高原东南部有效辐射呈增大的趋势...  相似文献